Bitcoin (BTC) has retraced towards the median of the $55,724 to $73,777 corridor, following the bulls’ inability to sustain the price beyond the formidable $70,000 threshold. For those anticipating a breakout, historical data for August presents little optimism. Coinglass data reveals a modest 2.24% average increase since 2013. The prevailing weakness in global equity markets has cast a pall of uncertainty over risk assets. The Nikkei index plummeted 6% on August 1, marking its steepest decline since the “Black Monday” crash of 1987. Should the sell-off permeate cryptocurrency markets, Bitcoin’s $60,000 support may be gravely tested.
Market Outlook
Despite the immediate weaknesses, analysts retain a bullish outlook on Bitcoin’s long-term potential. Renowned analyst Willy Woo posited on X that a mere 3% portfolio allocation by financial institutions could catapult Bitcoin to $700,000. The critical question remains whether buyers can fortify the $60,000 level or if this support will collapse, potentially dragging select altcoins lower.
Technical Analysis of Leading Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin Price Analysis
The bulls defended the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $63,130 on August 1 but failed to propel and sustain the price above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $65,046. The selling intensified on August 2, with the bears attempting to drive the price below the 50-day SMA. A successful breach could initiate a decline towards the psychological support at $60,000, and subsequently to $55,724. Buyers are anticipated to vigorously defend the $55,724 level. A sharp rebound from this level could keep the BTC/USDT pair in sideways action for some time, with the next significant move likely upon breaking above $73,777 or dropping below $55,724.
Ether Price Analysis
Bulls attempted to halt Ether’s (ETH) decline at $3,080 on August 1, but bearish pressure remains relentless. The price dropped below $3,080 on August 2, paving the way for a descent to the crucial support at $2,850, a level the bulls have defended for several months. A rebound from $2,850 followed by a failure to surpass the moving averages would signal bearish control and heighten the probability of a fall below $2,850. Conversely, a break above the moving averages would invalidate this bearish outlook and potentially lead to a rally towards the downtrend line.
BNB Price Analysis
BNB (BNB) has been oscillating within a broad range of $495 to $635, indicating an equilibrium between supply and demand. A dip below $550 could lead to a fall towards the pivotal support at $495. Bulls are expected to ardently defend the $495-$460 zone, as a breach could exacerbate selling. Should the price rebound from $550, bulls may attempt to push the BNB/USDT pair above the moving averages, potentially rallying towards $600 and the overhead resistance at $635.
Solana Price Analysis
Solana (SOL) plummeted below the 20-day EMA at $168 on August 1, indicating entrapment within the $116 to $210 range. The price has now reached the 50-day SMA at $152, a critical support level. A bounce from the 50-day SMA would prompt another attempt to exceed the 20-day EMA. Conversely, a breach below the 50-day SMA would signal a bearish advantage, potentially dragging the pair to solid support at $116.
XRP Price Analysis
XRP (XRP) surpassed the $0.64 resistance on July 31, but aggressive selling at higher levels was evident. The price slipped below the 20-day EMA at $0.58 on August 1, continuing the downtrend on August 2 below the $0.57 support. This suggests that the XRP/USDT pair may remain within the $0.41 to $0.64 range. A rise from $0.54 could see bulls attempting to push the pair above the 20-day EMA, possibly setting the stage for a journey towards $0.64.
Dogecoin Price Analysis
Dogecoin (DOGE) fell below the moving averages on July 31, continuing the decline past the $0.12 support on August 1. With the 20-day EMA at $0.12 turning downwards and the RSI in negative territory, the bears appear dominant. Sustaining below $0.12 could lead the DOGE/USDT pair to tumble towards $0.10. Bulls need to quickly reclaim the moving averages to signal demand at lower levels and potentially rise towards $0.14.
Toncoin Price Analysis
Toncoin (TON) turned down from the 20-day EMA at $6.87 on August 1, reflecting negative sentiment as traders sell on rallies. Bears aim to strengthen their position by pulling the price below the $6.36 support, potentially initiating a deeper correction towards $6 and subsequently $5.50. To avert this, buyers must quickly push the price above the 20-day EMA, potentially rallying towards the 50-day SMA at $7.26, keeping the pair within the $6.36 to $8.29 range for a period.
Cardano Price Analysis
Cardano (ADA) fell below the $0.38 support on August 1, with bulls buying the dip as seen from the long candlestick tail. However, the recovery was stymied by bears at the moving averages on August 2. The continued bearish pressure has pulled the price below $0.38, opening the path for a decline towards $0.33. Recovery attempts are likely to encounter significant resistance at the moving averages. Bulls need to push and maintain the ADA/USDT pair above the moving averages to signal a potential end to the downtrend.
Avalanche Price Analysis
Avalanche (AVAX) bounced from the robust $24 support on August 1, but bullish momentum waned. Bears aim to keep the price below $24, which could lead the AVAX/USDT pair towards the $21.80 support. Should buyers prevail at $24 or $21.80, bulls will again attempt to breach the moving averages, possibly rallying towards $29, a level likely to attract aggressive selling from bears.
Shiba Inu Price Analysis
Shiba Inu has minor support at $0.000015, but sustaining below this level could see the SHIB/USDT pair plummet to $0.000013. The downward sloping moving averages and the RSI in negative territory increase the risk of a breakdown. This bearish view will be invalidated if the price turns up and breaks above the moving averages, opening the door for a rise towards $0.000020, where bears are likely to mount a strong defense.
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